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Forecasting horizon and assumptions also play a role. Predicting earnings becomes increasingly challenging over longer time horizons. The further out you look, the more uncertain the predictions become. Any model will rely on underlying assumptions about future growth rates, expenses, and market conditions. Small changes to these assumptions can significantly alter the forecast. Sensitivity analysis, which examines how different assumptions affect the outcome, is crucial for understanding the range of possible outcomes. Making informed and realistic assumptions is key, which is difficult.
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